What economists think about Donald Trump’s 100-day plan

Sucheta Kinger | Nov 19, 2016

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Collections Politics

On his way to becoming the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump resolved to fix issues ranging from national security to economic growth. As part of his campaign, Trump proposed a 100-Day Plan that included “seven actions to protect American workers” from, among other things, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, currency manipulation, and energy drilling restrictions.

While millions of voters were receptive to Trump’s vision, leading economists, polled by Chicago Booth’s Initiative on Global Markets as part of its Economic Experts Panel, overwhelmingly disagree with his seven-point plan.

Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley
“Short-term fiscal stimulus will be a plus for the middle class, but then the negatives (investor uncertainty, inequality, geopolitical risk) will dominate.”
Response: Disagree

Christopher Udry, Yale
“These seven actions are symbolism (5, 6), actions with trivial immediate but disastrous long-run consequences (7), or threats of trade war (1-4).”
Response: Strongly Disagree

Daron Acemoglu, MIT
“Increased infrastructure spending could help construction, but the overall plan won’t help workers and will likely reduce medium term growth.”
Response: Disagree

David Autor, MIT
“Policies that raise import prices, deregulate dirty industries, and launch big infrastructure projects will boost non-college wages and jobs.”
Response: Agree

José Scheinkman, Princeton
“Most low-skilled workers would be hurt by higher cost of imports, disruption of global supply chains caused by tariffs and retaliations.”
Response: Strongly Disagree

 

About the IGM Economic Experts Panel 

To assess the extent to which economists agree or disagree on major public policy issues, Booth’s Initiative on Global Markets has assembled and regularly polls a diverse panel of expert economists, all senior faculty at the most elite research universities in the United States. The panel includes Nobel laureates and John Bates Clark medalists, among others. Questions are emailed individually to the panel members, and panelists may consult whatever resources they like before answering. Members of the public are free to suggest questions.