“The lessons from this recession and response are ongoing.”
economy
How the COVID-19 recession has differed from the Great Recession
“The time savings are approaching 10 billion hours as of mid-September for American workers alone.”
society | economy
Without commutes, how are Americans spending their extra time?
“In the face of large crises, government may want to consider a range of policies targeting aggregate demand.”
policy
COVID-19 stimulus checks spurred saving and debt payment more than spending
“We find these policies have pretty modest effects.”
policy
Chad Syverson on the impact of stay-at-home policies
“The headline unemployment rate turns out to be very misleading during the COVID-19 recession.”
economy
Matthew J. Notowidigdo: How temporary have temporary layoffs been?
“We do not find large spending declines in response to these local lockdowns.”
economy | policy
How to contain COVID-19 flare-ups without crushing the economy
“We find clear evidence that COVID-19 has shifted the direction of innovation.”
business | society
Inventors are eyeing your home office
“Workers continue to be laid off each month, but most of those layoffs are still temporary layoffs.”
economy
Matthew J. Notowidigdo: How quickly will unemployment figures recover?
“I’m surprised how much we do know and that we ignore.”
policy | health care
Capitalisn’t: Should we lock down again?
“After the pandemic, we’ll have to choose what to return to and what to keep from our remote way of working.”
business
There will be more innovation post-COVID. Here’s why.
“This ominous sign could have signaled a global shunning of US debt.”
markets
Why was there a Treasury bond crisis amid the COVID-19 stock market crash?
“The payments reversed some group-level income patterns that would otherwise have arisen in this crisis.”
policy
CARES unemployment payments replaced lost wages, and then some
“Regardless of how we look at the data, we see active funds underperforming during the crisis.”
markets
Mutual fund managers didn’t shine during the COVID-19 crisis
“In the context of a global pandemic, it’s particularly valuable to share our findings with the global research community.”
society
Jonathan Dingel: How COVID-19 is fostering collaboration among economists
“Companies that experienced lower stock returns during the COVID-19 outbreak were the primary beneficiaries.”
policy
Who benefited from CARES tax provisions?
“Is this a moral question rather than a market question?”
policy | health care
Capitalisn’t: The Capitalisn’t of vaccines
“There is no close historic parallel to the COVID-19 contraction.”
markets | economy
Persistent uncertainty is likely to hold back economic recovery
“I think it’s right to criticize the goal . . . but I don’t think that the implementation was wrong.”
policy
John Barrios: Did the Paycheck Protection Program work as designed?
“What we’ve seen in these data is a huge fall off in movement and a huge fall off in social contact.”
policy | society
Jonathan Dingel: What’s your potential exposure to COVID-19?
“To the extent that we can foster trust in the system, it makes it easier for a government to implement policy.”
society
John Barrios: How voter participation predicts adherence to social distancing
“The indexes provide a daily look at Americans’ movement patterns amid the pandemic’s spread.”
policy | society
A daily measure of people’s potential exposure to COVID-19
“Every critical relationship an entrepreneur must develop and maintain has changed.”
business
COVID-19 is changing key business relationships
“Consumers generally dismiss news from policy makers as irrelevant to their own financial futures.”
policy
Americans have little confidence in COVID-19 stimulus plans
“Households without cash on hand spent almost half their checks within 10 days.”
policy
How effective were stimulus checks in the US?
“It’s just going to be harder to build relationships with people, to build up trust.”
business
How will COVID-19 change management and leadership?
“Bipartisan reactions would seem to facilitate more compliance.”
society
John Barrios: Why partisanship affected Americans’ pandemic perceptions
“Our results suggest that legal restrictions per se didn’t have a big effect on people’s choices to stay at home.”
economy | policy
Fear, not government shutdowns, chilled the economy
“Gig work guards against human-capital depreciation.”
economy
John Barrios: How the gig economy could support pandemic recovery
“Venture capitalists are all unique, but they all want one thing—to make a significant return on their investments.”
markets | business
COVID-19 isn’t changing what investors want
“Certain hubs of vital economic activity could remain open.”
policy
How New York City could reopen its economy, neighborhood by neighborhood
“Most people perceive bankruptcy as death. This isn’t necessarily true.”
policy | business
Capitalisn’t: Should Luigi’s Pizza file for bankruptcy?
“In practice, the FDA swings a bit like a pendulum between prioritizing safety and prioritizing efficacy.”
policy | health care
Will COVID-19 speed up the drug-approval process?
“How much of a role does media itself play in whether people will follow or reject social-distancing guidelines?”
society
Fox News causes viewers to disregard social distancing
“If the government wants to keep small businesses afloat, its support must be enacted quickly and generously.”
business
US small businesses have little cushion against prolonged disruptions
“Residents of Seoul used the information to strategically alter their commuting and social habits.”
policy
How South Korea limited COVID-19 deaths and economic damage
“The question is, how do we deal with this mountain of debt?”
economy
Lubos Pastor: Why inflation could follow the crisis
“We do find Republicans and Democrats behaving similarly.”
economy | society
Constantine Yannelis: Who has been stockpiling during the crisis?
“I get a tremendous amount of energy by being in a room with other people.”
society
Lindsey Lyman: What we’re losing by working remotely
“People build their families on the assumption there will be a functioning marketplace for childcare.”
economy | society
More than 50 million Americans can’t return to work fully until schools reopen
“It’s important to know what work is going to look like during this period of social distancing.”
economy | society
Brent Neiman: Most of us can’t work from home
“We need a plan that allows us to make use of the ventilators that already exist.”
health care | policy
Dan Adelman: Better allocating ventilators could save thousands of lives
“Incentivized avoidance of job destruction is going to be important, we believe, in the recovery.”
policy
Veronica Guerrieri: How policy makers can help save jobs
“We need social connection more now than arguably at any other time.”
society
Nicholas Epley: Policies should prioritize human well-being
“I predict we will see a more formalized approach to risk mitigation.”
business
Nicole DeHoratius: Supply chains are rethinking their low-cost focus
“In this integrated world, is it even possible to go it alone?”
global impact | policy
Raghuram G. Rajan: How COVID-19 could prompt global cooperation
“Is this a moment in which we should stimulate demand or not?”
economy | policy
Veronica Guerrieri: Is the pandemic a supply- or demand-side shock?
“Every single country has exactly the same problem. It’s a shock that hits everybody equally.”
global impact | policy
Chang-Tai Hsieh: We need a plan to avoid a humanitarian and economic catastrophe
“Banks need to keep lending so that companies can keep making their payments.”
policy
Haresh Sapra: Now is not the time to relax accounting standards
“The accuracy of antibody tests is still in question.”
health care | policy
What percentage of the population has contracted COVID-19?
“Direct health spending should really be the highest priority, by a large order of magnitude.”
policy
Joseph S. Vavra: This is not a normal recession. A normal response will not do.
“We can’t get back to our original level until we solve the medical problem.”
economy | policy
Chad Syverson: What has to happen for people to go back to work
“The responses suggest a slow and difficult recovery.”
economy
How much exactly have COVID-19 lockdowns affected the economy?
“Once you allow the ventilators to circulate between states, you can get substantially more benefits.”
health care | policy
Dan Adelman: To save lives, move ventilators between states
“Conversation over the internet is something, but it’s not really the thing that psychologists believe keeps people healthy.”
society
Ayelet Fishbach: What’s the mental toll of life during a pandemic?
“I think there’s a lot of interesting stuff to be learned about what it is exactly that they did.”
policy
Chang-Tai Hsieh: How big an effect did lockdowns have on China’s economy?
“Some financial institutions may have been more eager than others to participate in the Paycheck Protection Program.”
business | policy
Small-business loans didn’t reach their targets
“Just because we’re in a crisis doesn’t mean fiscal stimulus is a free lunch. We ought to use it as needed, but use it wisely.”
markets | policy
Steven J. Davis: How COVID-19 is disrupting business, markets, and policy
“Overall, 42 percent of pandemic-related layoffs will be permanent, the researchers estimate.”
economy
COVID-19 will end some jobs, and transform others
“Bailouts raise unnerving questions about how the economy might be rigged in favor of plutocratic outcomes.”
business | society
COVID-19 will change the way we think of risk
“Decision makers often find themselves drowning in data, yet truly vital information is not available.”
business
How leaders can rise to the challenge of COVID-19
“This advance of virtual working may be particularly important for increasing the participation of women.”
society | economy
Veronica Guerrieri: Why the crisis could prompt more women to join the labor market
“The prevalence of offshore issuance may make it less clear in a crisis who gets paid.”
markets | global impact
Global investment statistics hide potential risks
“If you think the US needs to put in place a rescue package, well, every other country needs to do the same thing.”
policy | global impact
Chang-Tai Hsieh: Could COVID-19 spark a sovereign-debt crisis?
“This might be the time for businesses to take a hard look at themselves and assess potential ways forward.”
business
Pivoting in a time of crisis
“There is a particular need for coordination among policies in different countries.”
policy | global impact
Veronica Guerrieri: What the crisis means for the European Union
“The lack of data is a problem, and that’s also going to be a problem in thinking about the exit strategy.”
policy
Randall S. Kroszner: Why Asia acted faster than the rest of the world
“Midtown is an economic juggernaut, and the cost of shutting it down is just too high.”
policy
How to reopen cities, neighborhood by neighborhood
“Sometimes we forget that there are also huge cons of interacting with other people.”
society
Chang-Tai Hsieh: Will COVID-19 hamper the growth of cities?
“That’s very scary and problematic and suggests there’s going to be a really severe economic hit.”
economy
Brent Neiman: How many people can work from home?
“If these programs are successful, the financial sector shouldn’t require its own bailout.”
policy
Two proposals to keep the lights on at small businesses
“I could see this really affecting community colleges, and I could see it affecting lower-tier schools.”
economy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—the future of universities
“Kids who grow up in poor neighborhoods are going to have even worse access to education than before.”
economy | society
Veronica Guerrieri: The crisis could widen the gap between rich and poor neighborhoods
“The banks are not the bad guys here. But they have an opportunity to be the good guys.”
business | policy
Haresh Sapra: Why current accounting rules could stop banks from lending
“The recession ultimately needs to be mollified by a combination of stimulus and social support.”
economy | policy
How COVID-19 shocked both supply and demand
“It’s different now. The Secretary of the Treasury’s now locked arms with the Fed.”
policy
Randall S. Kroszner: Is the Fed being too bold in its response to the crisis?
“We have a real risk that debt crises ensue.”
economy | global impact
Brent Neiman: What issues could hinder an international economic recovery?
“In the span of just one month, this rate far exceeded the decline experienced from 2008 to 2016.”
economy
Why US unemployment is even worse than the official numbers say
“I hope we are learning how to use technology for what it’s really good for, which is connecting us at a distance.”
society
Nicholas Epley: What will be the long-term psychological impact of COVID-19?
“The sad lessons of a thousand years of government borrowing and its limits can be forgotten, but not erased.”
policy
How the Fed plans to pay the country’s bills
“Why not use the opportunity to look at decisions that have been postponed that require large investments?”
business
Haresh Sapra: How the crisis could prompt innovation
“We don’t have the option of borrowing money from Mars. So we’ve got to think of something else.”
policy | global impact
Chang-Tai Hsieh: Why poor countries need a debt moratorium
“A number of those jobs will have to change. There will have to be some transition.”
policy
Randall S. Kroszner: Rethinking unemployment insurance in response to the crisis
“Lower-income households found it hardest to smooth their outlays, the researchers find.”
economy
Business shutdowns hurt those just above the poverty line
“This is precisely the time when banks need to be monitoring the risks of borrowers.”
policy
Haresh Sapra: The crisis should not delay stricter accounting rules
“I worry that policy is trying to freeze in place the way the world was before the shock happened.”
policy | economy
Randall S. Kroszner: Many economic projections are too optimistic
“This cost would justify sizable increases in world spending on antiviral drugs and flu vaccines.”
policy | society
Some economics of flu pandemics
“Right now we’re living in a time where we see very clearly the value of being responsive.”
business
Nicole DeHoratius: How will COVID-19 change the supply chain?
“I think in the short run it’s going to be a very slow return to anything that’s close to normal.”
economy | society
Randall S. Kroszner: We won’t go back to “business as usual”
“We must all acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in our analyses.”
policy
No one has all the answers for COVID-19 policy
“Much of the exercise many Americans get is just normal workday commuting, interacting.”
health care | society
Lindsey Lyman: How does remote working affect your health?
“All the big capitalist success stories are those with a strong government capacity.”
policy
Postcrisis: A new role for the state
“Bankruptcy provides for a much more equitable distribution of the sacrifice.”
policy | economy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—the state bankruptcy debate
“The signs are that the supply chain is doing quite well.”
business
Nicole DeHoratius: How healthy are supply chains following the advent of COVID-19?
“You’ll forego some of the benefits of globalization, but I don’t think you’ll forego all of them.”
economy
Randall S. Kroszner: The crisis will partially reverse globalization
“Policy makers can maximize the usefulness of each machine by making sure it’s in the right place at the right time.”
policy | health care
States could save lives by sharing ventilators with each other
“When people feel disconnected from others, they are not well, physically speaking.”
policy | health care
Nicholas Epley: Why mental well-being should be part of the COVID-19 policy response
“I think that we won’t end up Monday-morning quarterbacking, as was very much the response to the last crisis.”
policy
Constantine Yannelis: Have real-time data helped us address the crisis?
“The trend towards more concentration in business activity is probably going to continue.”
economy
Chad Syverson: How could COVID-19 reshape the US economy?
“This is a time to focus on defense first.”
society | business
How to lead organizations through the COVID-19 crisis
“It’s a wonderful field experiment: Let’s have everybody work from home and see if they like it.”
society
Ayelet Fishbach: How soon will life go back to normal after the crisis?
“Some insurers—AIG, Brighthouse, and Lincoln—saw drawdowns of 65 percent or more.”
markets
COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of the life-insurance industry
“There are significant costs to working this way that I believe we’re not sufficiently reflecting on.”
society
Lindsey Lyman: Working from home has some big costs
“It’s interesting to me that every time there’s a major crisis, people talk about accounting.”
business | policy
Haresh Sapra: How politicians and companies can regain trust
“The difference in this event is that it’s global. It’s happening at all places at all times.”
business
Nicole DeHoratius: How do you prepare a supply chain for disaster?
“Regardless of how we choose to bear them, the costs of the pandemic will be large.”
policy
Some basic economics of COVID-19 policy
“We do find Republicans and Democrats behaving very similarly.”
society
Constantine Yannelis: How has COVID-19 shaped consumer behavior?
“Opportunities for at-home work vary greatly by region.”
business | economy
Only 37 percent of US jobs can be done at home
“Are individual choices about whether to stay home or go out the right way to make this decision collectively?”
policy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—the risk of reopening
“You can reach out and connect to others, and others are going to be more receptive than you might guess.”
society
Nicholas Epley: The power of social connection in the age of social distancing
“If we have a lot of uncertainty in a situation, we should be more cautious, not less cautious.”
policy
Constantine Yannelis: Policymaking at a time of uncertainty
“Controlling prices to prevent gouging won’t help people in vulnerable groups.”
society
How retailers inadvertently contribute to hoarding
“Patience is hard, and being patient when you have a lot of uncertainty makes it even harder.”
policy | society
Ayelet Fishbach: How can policy makers help people cope with uncertainty?
“When those links are destroyed, you’re not going to get those things back.”
policy | economy
Joseph S. Vavra: Could the COVID-19 crisis permanently affect the US economy?
“If only we could just ‘let the data speak’—but that is not how most model building proceeds.”
policy
How quantitative models can help policy makers respond to COVID-19
“Some economic activities could resume in a limited, thoughtful manner.”
economy | policy
A simple framework to help revive the US economy
“If there’s one thing that policy makers should be focusing on, it’s making sure that small businesses have access to liquidity.”
business | policy
Constantine Yannelis: The challenge for businesses in the age of COVID-19
“About half of this projected contraction is due to COVID-19-related uncertainty.”
economy
The US economy could contract 11 percent in 2020
“What we are concerned about is the sustainability in the long term, not in the short term.”
economy | policy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—how are we going to pay for it?
“We should think about, who’s ultimately best able to bear the consequences of this recession?”
Policy
Joseph S. Vavra: Has the US done enough to help small businesses?
“If the directly affected firms fire workers, these workers will buy less from all types of firms.”
economy
Why industry-specific shocks can damage the entire economy
“This is not just about global supply chains being disrupted for some time and a locked-down economy.”
economy | global impact
Raghuram G. Rajan: How will COVID-19 shake the global economy?
“In places with more Trump voters, residents had exhibited a muted response to preliminary COVID-19 cases.”
society
Partisan bias affects what Americans think of the coronavirus
“I think people have realized that some regulatory issues are more of a hindrance in this situation than a help.”
Policy
Chad Syverson: Has the US done enough to combat COVID-19’s economic damage?
“The sooner regulators act, the better-prepared banks will be for weathering further crises.”
policy
Policy makers’ COVID-19 accounting gift to banks
“The data confirm that an expectation of trouble ahead drives spending decisions.”
society
Who stocked up before COVID-19 hit
“Businesses themselves see a very bad hit to their sales revenue, to their operations, in 2020.”
business
Steven J. Davis: How has COVID-19 affected businesses?
“These actions to protect public health had an enormous, negative impact on economic activity.”
policy
What were the preliminary economic effects of China’s lockdowns?
“We must be aware that we live on this one planet, where this crisis can come back to hit us from anywhere.”
global impact
Raghuram G. Rajan: COVID-19 is a global problem that needs a global solution
“These areas might have difficulty reaching out and getting this access to credit.”
business | economy
In small-business lending, will some areas get left behind?
“Recent stock-market behavior is an early and visible reflection of the (expected) damage.”
markets
The coronavirus has exerted historic influence on equity markets
“Right now, our goal really is not to encourage spending.”
policy
Joseph S. Vavra: Is economic stimulus the right response to the crisis?
“If you’re in a slum, it’s very hard to stay some distance from people within your house, let alone people in the community.”
global impact
Raghuram G. Rajan: How will poor countries cope with COVID-19?
“The foundation of what makes experiments informative is randomization.”
health care
Good decisions require good experiments
“Our evolution as people didn’t teach us to connect over just the medium of voice, or seeing an e-mail.”
society
Ayelet Fishbach: How will social distancing affect our mental well-being?
“Do you want people to get out of their pajamas and back to work? Then we NEED TO DO MORE TESTS.”
policy
Will the US need to expand testing before lifting lockdowns?
“Once the government has the response under control, it has to rebuild hope.”
global impact | policy
How India can meet its greatest challenge in recent history
“When the US stock markets went into crisis mode, the yield curve didn’t always move in the usual pattern.”
markets | economy
How the Treasury yield curve reflects worry
“In some ways, China’s actions set the tone for the global response to the crisis.”
policy | global impact
China’s economic response to COVID-19 has helped, for now
“My assumption is that this will change the way we look at safety nets.”
business | economy
Raghuram G. Rajan: How will COVID-19 reshape the gig economy?
“Common monetary policy combined with unlinked national fiscal policies has never made sense.”
policy
How should European policy makers respond to COVID-19?
“We've seen administrations finally come to recognize the value of professional expertise.”
society
Raghuram G. Rajan: Could COVID-19 spell the end of political populism?
“The stock market reaction to the coronavirus pandemic has been, in some respects, unprecedented.”
Markets
Steven J. Davis: How has COVID-19 hit the stock market?
“My concern is, winners and losers are going to be decided by something other than standard competition.”
policy
Michael Minnis: How small businesses could miss out on stimulus funds
“Is it really feasible to keep spending ‘anything it takes’ every 10 years?”
Policy
Raghuram G. Rajan: Will we have the money to tackle the next pandemic?
“The direct effects of the recession are very disproportionately hitting the people least able to bear negative shocks.”
economy
Joseph S. Vavra: Will the COVID-19 crisis exacerbate inequality?
“There is no reason to give handouts to people who don’t need them.”
policy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—the winners and losers in the stimulus bill
“Credit support makes a lot of sense for businesses. Bailing out shareholders makes less sense.”
policy
Steven J. Davis: Should the US bail out airlines?
“How many types of intangible capital are being destroyed and are going to have to be rebuilt?”
economy
Chad Syverson: How quickly will the US economy recover?
“Constraints are beneficial, and can accelerate rather than inhibit innovation.”
business
Four ways to ensure innovation continues after the crisis
“If I put saving a large number of people as a priority, I think that we can pay an economic cost for that.”
policy
Capitalisn’t: Coronavirus—a cost-benefit analysis of the economic shutdown
“Containment doesn’t mean complete elimination.”
policy | health care
How does economic policy interact with public health measures for COVID-19?
“Firms’ uncertainty about their own sales growth rates rose 44 percent from February to March.”
business
US companies are bracing for a big blow from COVID-19
“The current situation is unprecedented, and it’s developing rapidly.”
markets
How the coronavirus affects stock prices and growth expectations
“When it comes to COVID-19, the conventional economic trade-offs are greatly overstated.”
policy
Don’t fall for the false trade-offs of COVID-19 policy
“People are the important thing, money is cheap, and this medical shock is transient.”
economy | policy
To treat COVID-19’s economic impact, start by keeping the lights on
“Just like in 2007-08, Europe is out for lunch when it matters. The one viable actor in times of crisis is the nation state.”
economy
Will there be a coronavirus recession?
“The economic shock from this crisis is going to be huge, with an enormous human cost.”
policy