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- By
- July 26, 2016
- CBR - Economics
Understanding the economic, political, and social conditions that make the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attractive globally could help efforts to predict and prevent terrorism. But some of the key assumptions about what prompts people to join this particular group are wrong, argue Efraim Benmelech of Northwestern University and Esteban Klor of Hebrew University.
Some researchers contend that there’s a relationship between poverty and jihadism. Paris School of Economics’ Thomas Piketty proposed in a 2015 op-ed that more-equitable social systems would help stymie ISIS recruiting, while research on the economics of conflict has long linked political unrest with poor economic conditions.
But Benmelech and Klor, in what they state is the first systematic analysis of the link between ISIS and economic, political, and social conditions, say many ISIS recruits come from rich countries, where income inequality is relatively low and political institutions are highly developed. “Poor economic conditions do not drive participation in ISIS,” the researchers write. The likelihood that someone would join ISIS in a given country rises where prosperity is widespread and political dissent is well tolerated.
Where ISIS fighters come from
On this map, countries in darker blue have produced a higher ratio of ISIS foreign fighters, relative to the size of their Muslim populations. Hover over the map for specific country-level data.
“It is still possible that some individuals that join ISIS are poor even if they live in wealthy countries,” says Benmelech. “However, there is anecdotal evidence that this is not the case.”
The authors note that the top countries for recruits are ethnically and linguistically homogenized, and perhaps difficult places for Muslim immigrants from the Middle East to assimilate. The sense of isolation may make members of an outsider group susceptible to radicalization. Their results suggest that recruits are driven “by ideology and the difficulty of assimilation into homogeneous Western countries.”
The researchers’ point is illustrated with a list that compares countries by the percentage of its Muslim population fighting for ISIS as foreign recruits. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sudan—with large Muslim communities and high rates of poverty—are at the bottom of the list. Statistically, the countries where a Muslim is most likely to become radicalized are Finland, Ireland, Belgium, and Sweden.
- Efraim Benmelech and Esteban Klor, “What Explains the Flow of Foreign Fighters to ISIS?” Working paper, April 2016.
- Thomas Piketty, “Clamping down with Law and Order Will Not Be Enough,” Le Monde, November 2015.
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