The Best Charts and Graphics from Our Summer Issue

Chicago Booth’s Samuel Hartzmark and University of Southern California’s David H. Solomon explore the “free-dividends fallacy,” the notion that investors seemingly fail to recognize that a dividend comes with a corresponding drop in the share price of a stock. Investors instead see the dividend as a separate income stream. The research suggests that investors are eager to buy dividend-paying stocks and reluctant to sell them.

Have central bankers lost their power?

The Fed’s influence over interest rates is stronger in the short run but weaker as rates extend to months or years, according to research by Chicago Booth’s Eugene F. Fama. The charts here show the rates at different lengths of time—from one month to 10 years—as a spread over the fed funds target rate. Putting every chart on the same scale tells the story: in the short run, the spread is not especially volatile, but in the long run, it is much more so.

As Sears fails, who will buy its brands?

Chicago Booth’s Pradeep K. Chintagunta uses data from Twitter to paint a picture of consumer sentiment about household-appliance brands such as Kenmore, Maytag, and Whirlpool. Plotting the information onto a grid creates a data-driven illustration of the degree to which people associate certain keywords with each of these brands.

Why stock returns under Trump might disappoint investors

Economic researchers marvel at what they have termed the Presidential Puzzle—going back to the 1920s, average stock market returns under Democratic presidents have been markedly higher than under Republican ones. This chart, based on research by Chicago Booth’s Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi, looks at returns compared with the 3-month Treasury bill rate. The researchers suggest that voters’ economic risk aversion plays a significant role in determining which party wins the presidency.

Surprising numbers behind start-up survival rates

Chicago Booth’s Waverly Deutsch looks at evidence supporting the idea that entrepreneurs find a strong foothold if they start a company after a market downturn. She focuses on US start-ups launched in 2011—after the 2007–10 financial crisis had led to a high number of company failures—and identifies numerous industries with strong five-year survival rates.

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