Food waste in Chicago
In Chicago, the optimal number of food retailers per 10 square kilometers is 195; the current number is 15.
When the store is convenient, a shopper is less likely to stock up—and less likely to let food spoil. “Households have to travel less to visit a store in denser markets, which incents more frequent trips to grocery stores and smaller basket sizes or household inventory levels,” Belavina writes. “Smaller inventory levels imply less food waste as it is less likely that the inventory will expire before it is consumed.”
However, higher store density also leads to more retail food waste. When customers waste less, they buy less. Meanwhile, each store serves a smaller area and carries inventory, which is less efficient than a system that involves more centralized inventory. Demand is also more irregular and variable, Belavina says, as shoppers who stock up return to stores on a more predictable basis than shoppers with less in their baskets. The end result: stores end up with leftover inventory, which becomes waste.
Belavina creates a model that weighs the competing effects and countereffects. Consider, for example, that when there are more stores in an area, there’s more competition, which leads to lower prices. “This increases consumer waste as consumers waste more of the cheaper groceries,” she writes. “This higher consumer waste translates into higher market demand, which decreases retail waste on account of the smaller safety stocks.” Belavina’s analysis finds that despite this, and despite generally increased retail waste, higher store density does generally reduce food waste.