Investors’ prediction bias doesn't appear to be systematically pessimistic or optimistic, but it may be procyclical.
Has the hunt for investable factors gone too far?
In the academic literature on predicting asset values, researchers have proposed hundreds of factors to explain an individual stock’s return.
Lower earners tend to base their decisions and thinking on their personal experiences with the economy.
People have a tendency to rely on what they've personally observed, rather than objective assessments.